Based on the underlying numbers, Liverpool created enough against a Burnley side that packed all ten outfield players behind the ball that they should have been up two or three to nil long before stoppage time arrived. As the game played out, though, it was still somehow a scoreless draw heading into the final minutes.
Right up until a clear Burnley handball sent Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah to the penalty spot with a chance to win Sunday’s match 1-0 in the 95th minute. It was a lucky moment, but also a moment that on the balance of the 90+ minutes that had been played out before it, a moment that Liverpool quite entirely deserved.
“It’s a tough opponent today,” Salah said of the Reds’ opponents, who completed just 81 of 168 attempted passes and attempted three shots (with none on target) while creating 0.13 expected goals (meaning it would take about eight games like Sunday’s for Burnley to create chances totalling around a single expected goal).
“We tried our best to play with the ball but it can be tough. I’m glad that in the end we managed to win the game. We had a few new players in the starting line-up. It takes time to adapt their game to our game. We’re trying to find the balance but we don’t give up. We just try to push ourselves and our team to the limit.”
Liverpool weren’t perfect, but before Salah’s late stoppage time penalty goal, the Reds had already created around 2.5 expected goals worth of chances. On another day, it’s likely the game would have already been easily won long before stoppage time arrived. And as everyone, including Salah, is saying, Liverpool will improve.
The Reds are four wins from four to start the season, and while the games have been tight on balance they have deserved maximum points in all of them despite leaving it late. And this is a side that will get better. A side that has seen heavy changes to the squad and has numerous new players now getting up to speed.
Liverpool left it late on Sunday against Burnley, but they fully deserved the three points based on how the two sides played things out, and that seems worth keeping in mind as we look ahead to the weeks and months to come with the expectation that what we saw on Sunday isn’t anything like this side’s final form.