A silver lining may have appeared in the dark, gloomy, intractable cloud of the Boko Haram insurgency, amid reports that some members of the group have reached out, requesting a platform to negotiate with the federal government on possible cessation of hostilities. No one should be under any illusions that Boko Haram could be dealt with military force alone; hence negotiation is a sure step towards peace, which the government should not be afraid to take. It is just as well that President Buhari has opened the door to dialogue. With this, the insurgency that has cost thousands of lives and spawned the kidnapping of hundreds, including the now-famous Chibok girls, may be in its twilight. As long as the objectives are to end the senseless blood-letting and restore peace to the war-ravaged Northeast, this development is welcome. But with all the soft and hard power available to it, the government should not, out of desperation, negotiate from a position of weakness. It is not done, and it must not happen.
Bearing in mind previous failed attempts at negotiations, the government must tread carefully to avoid repeating past mistakes. The logical point of departure would be to devise a means of knowing the authenticity or otherwise of the leaders that would come for the negotiations. In other words, before negotiations can take place, the government must identify credible leaders of the group and not self-appointed leaders whose only driving motive is pecuniary. Since the emergence of Boko Haram, there have been several failed attempts by the government to negotiate with the group. Former President Goodluck Jonathan even set up a presidential committee as part of the quest to understand the grievances of the group and to bring them to the negotiating table.
The Jonathan government went further to negotiate with some supposed Boko Haram leaders who were later discovered to be anything but the true representatives of the group. After investing huge resources, the government announced with fanfare, that it had reached a peace deal brokered by Chadian President Idris Derby. Then Chief of Defence Staff, Air Marshal Alex Badeh, directed the military to immediately comply with the ceasefire. But the credibility of the ceasefire was put in question two days later, after dozens of women and girls were kidnapped in Adamawa by insurgents. It was unfortunate enough that Nigeria found herself in this quagmire, but whatever the case, the so-called ceasefire was no comforting news and the renewed attacks were even more embarrassing.
President Buhari fully well acknowledges the grim reality of the insurgency and the imperative of dialogue with the sect, whose activities are inimical to the socio-economic development of the country. And that until the insurgents were defeated and peace restored, little progress would be made towards delivering the change promised by his party. It is true Nigerians are eager for the Chibok girls and other hostages to be freed and for the mindless killings to end. While military efforts to defeat Boko Haram are on course, the government must demonstrate its resolve to negotiate from strength by laying out the process and ensuring the conditions are acceptable to the Nigerian people, who as victims, are the primary stakeholders in the conflict. In the face of the proscription of the sect, Nigerians would like to know what the terrorists really want.
Here the government must recognize that Boko Haram is no longer a single, coherent organization, as the group seems to now be a franchise with different factions. The government needs to be strategic and should deploy every legitimate means at its disposal to reach an enduring settlement so it can move on to deliver the dividends of democracy to the Nigerian people. The actual negotiation must be done discreetly. It defies logic and reeks of poor judgment, and it is very unlikely that there is any country in the world, where a democratically elected government would be negotiating a “ceasefire” with an outlawed non-state, terrorist group committed to the anti-constitutional act of trying to replace it with an Islamic system of government, and make noise about it. Without mincing words, this is a betrayal of the sacrifice and patriotism of the soldiers on the frontlines battling insurgency. Boko Haram should never be allowed to talk to the government like an equal. Demeaning as this is, it dresses Nigeria in the garb of a banana republic, lacking the wherewithal to fulfill its national security obligations.
Undoubtedly, it is widely accepted that as duly constituted authorities, governments do not, in principle, negotiate with terrorists. However, it is also a matter of realpolitik that secret negotiations may be held with belligerent groups towards engagement and a negotiated settlement. Even big powers do this on the wise assumption that all fighting eventually end up on the negotiation table. Nigeria has been traumatized beyond description by the insurgency; the wounds are deep and the wailing unceasing. If an end must be sought and found to the menace, the process must be discrete and secret without any undue publicity.
While Nigerians across the board have hailed the move towards dialogue, others have denounced it as morally and legally wrong and therefore unacceptable since it might entail amnesty for a murderous sect of misanthropic elements bent on frustrating the progress of human civilization, with dastardly, cowardly acts of bestiality. To all intents and purposes, Boko Haram is a declared terrorist organization and subject to the full application of the provisions of the 2011 Terrorism Prevention Act. This includes a prison term of at least 20 years for persons who knowingly, in any manner, directly or otherwise support in any way whatsoever, a terrorist group or the commission of an act of terrorism. For this reason then, it may be asserted that in principle, the federal government will be negotiating with persons wanted by the law to answer for their acts of criminality.
The orgy of violence and the inadequacy of the military’s response to the terrorists’ brazen assault on the Nigerian state may be forcing the new government’s hand. This is understandable. But the point must however be made, and with emphasis, that the Nigerian state is not on equal standing with Boko Haram and cannot, therefore appear to be negotiating on equal terms. The group remains largely a faceless organization with no clear identifiable leadership, and its organizational structure is unknown, and its grievances and demands are not articulated for the purpose of serious negotiation. In the present situation, it is important that the Nigerian state must retain the upper hand in all spheres; military, diplomacy, and public communications. In military terms, the counter-insurgency effort must continue to contain and limit the terrorists’ capability to strike at will; forcing them to resort to more desperate tactics of using teenagers as suicide bombers. All these make the case for peace and negotiations even more compelling.